Future Projects

There's too much happening all at once. Just when I thought I had an off-season of time to update my projection formula, the Sacramento Kings have decided to leave my home town for Anaheim. This news upsets me like no other and when they do move I'll make a video about it the same way Sonicsgate made theirs. So here's what I have on my agenda...............

NBA videos

- The Kings Last Game (An hour long documentary for youtube)

- Donaghy vs Stern (The final documentary in the Making of the Greatest Tragedy in Sports trilogy)

NFL videos

-512 All-time Team Tournament

-Ranking the NFL (A documentary about how I decoded NFL's betting lines)

www.NFLranking.net

-I will rank all the NFL teams statistically from 1966-2010 and will simulate my projected scores against the point spread from 2003-2010.

This is harder than I thought

If I get half of the games right for a season at 60%, it will pay the same as if I got 56% for every game. So I've concentrated on working out a formula that guesses on every game (not just when both columns agree), and felt pretty good when I got 57% for every game during the 2010 season.

Then I went to the 2009 season with the same formula and got 54%. Not great, but not bad, so then I went to 2008 and got 49%. That sucks and is totally unacceptable since I can maintain at least 56.5% for at least half of the games with the old formula.

So I'm back to square one and it's frustrating. The NFL is locked out, the Kings are moving out of Sacramento, and I can't do a thing about it.

My Goal: 60% or higher weeks 1-17

My betting numbers from my projection formula won at 61% for the 2010 season. It was my second best season since keeping track in 2003. However, I'm not satisfied because it's only from weeks 5-17 and it's not for every game. I have two categories: Current stats and what's due. When both agree against the spread, I can win usually at 57%.

My goal before the 2011 season is to update my formula to include every game (not just when the two categories agree) and to include the first four weeks of the season (in my opinion the hardest weeks to gamble on). I'm hoping the 'new statistics' I've discovered from the 2010 Packers will be the missing link in achieving my goal.

Step one - Analyze every NFL box score from 2002-2010. Find out what creates points.

The 2010 Packers changed EVERYTHING

During the last 2 weeks I've been struggling trying to understand why Vegas has the Packers -2.5 for Super Bowl 45. So after seeing them defeat the Steelers last night 31-25, I've concluded that the 3 road playoff wins for the Packers made the difference. So, I now will have to go through all my numbers and factor 'home vs away' stats and strength of schedule.

Everything has changed (but for the better of course)!

So the numbers on NFLranking.net may not be the same a few months from now.

1972 Dolphins Ranking Formula

Lately I've been doing alot of football research and decided to change the formula for my ranking system. In the past everything was based on the 1972 Dolphins regular season stats. Now I've included two new categories: playoffs and strength of schedule. Everything needs to be adjusted so that the 72 Dolphins will have a rating of 100.00%. Well it turns out that the 72 Dolphins based on stats alone, were not that great. So, I then changed the ratios of how I weigh the stats, placing more emphasis on wins opposed to yards.

Old formula: Winning Percentage (1/3), Margin per victory (1/3), Yardage Margin (1/3)

old youtube video explaining it here ---> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixwDCgFs-W4

New Formula: Winning Percentage (4/7), Margin per victory (2/7), Yardage Margin (1/7)

The whole point of ranking NFL teams originally was to reward lesser known teams that had great stats with no championships. Now, I've stressed more importance on WINS and points and saved my yardage stats more for handicapping games (61% in 2010).

Please visit my site soon to see the changes. http://www.nflranking.net/

The Making of "The Greatest Tragedy in Sports"

I've decided on 5/31/2010 as the date I'll release my 2+ hour documentary about the NBA and the 2002 Western Conference Finals. The first 87 minutes are completed and I'm hoping to get 2 hours in by the release date. However, my computer keeps freezing during editing, and I barely get anything done each day. I often find myself wanting to quit, but something about the 2002 team inspires me to keep going.

Who is the greatest NFL team ever?

During the offseason of between 2009 and 2010, I plan on simulating a 512 team tournament consisting of every NFL playoff team since 1966.

Check the youtube video for more details
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JChHcwYYz2s