Wednesday, February 9, 2011

My Goal: 60% or higher weeks 1-17

My betting numbers from my projection formula won at 61% for the 2010 season. It was my second best season since keeping track in 2003. However, I'm not satisfied because it's only from weeks 5-17 and it's not for every game. I have two categories: Current stats and what's due. When both agree against the spread, I can win usually at 57%.

My goal before the 2011 season is to update my formula to include every game (not just when the two categories agree) and to include the first four weeks of the season (in my opinion the hardest weeks to gamble on). I'm hoping the 'new statistics' I've discovered from the 2010 Packers will be the missing link in achieving my goal.

Step one - Analyze every NFL box score from 2002-2010. Find out what creates points.

Monday, February 7, 2011

The 2010 Packers changed EVERYTHING

During the last 2 weeks I've been struggling trying to understand why Vegas has the Packers -2.5 for Super Bowl 45. So after seeing them defeat the Steelers last night 31-25, I've concluded that the 3 road playoff wins for the Packers made the difference. So, I now will have to go through all my numbers and factor 'home vs away' stats and strength of schedule.

Everything has changed (but for the better of course)!

So the numbers on may not be the same a few months from now.