Bad news!

On 8/19/2011 youtube deleted my Channel http://www.youtube.com/NFLranking.com for multiple copyright violations by the NFL. I'm trying to fight it, but it doesn't look good since youtube hasn't written me back. I have a new channel here titled NFLrankingDOTnet http://www.youtube.com/NFLrankingDOTnet

I will make a new video detailing how youtube, the NFL, and the NBA all conspired against me for telling the truth. The first image of the Greatest Tragedy in Sports was the American flag which was to remind them about my constitutional rights regarding the Fair Use act of 1976. The NFL thinks that law doesn't pertain to them, and I will gladly educate them that it does. Either way my videos still should not have been deleted and I will fight this until the end of time.

Meanwhile I've been running through simulations on numerous formulas I've invented since the Packers defeated the Steelers in Super Bowl 45.

One formula had me winning the 2010 season at 59.4%, but the 2008-2009 seasons were only at 52.0%. I don't have the time to go through 2003-2007 seasons before the kickoff of 2011, so I will just have to wing it with what I have working for me. All these numbers are subject to change of course during or after the season when I find the right mathematics.

At worst I can get about half the games right at 56.5%. At best I'm hoping to get 56% of ALL the games right vs the spread. All I need is time which unfortunately I don't have enough of before the 2011 season.

Future Projects

There's too much happening all at once. Just when I thought I had an off-season of time to update my projection formula, the Sacramento Kings have decided to leave my home town for Anaheim. This news upsets me like no other and when they do move I'll make a video about it the same way Sonicsgate made theirs. So here's what I have on my agenda...............

NBA videos

- The Kings Last Game (An hour long documentary for youtube)

- Donaghy vs Stern (The final documentary in the Making of the Greatest Tragedy in Sports trilogy)

NFL videos

-512 All-time Team Tournament

-Ranking the NFL (A documentary about how I decoded NFL's betting lines)

www.NFLranking.net

-I will rank all the NFL teams statistically from 1966-2010 and will simulate my projected scores against the point spread from 2003-2010.

This is harder than I thought

If I get half of the games right for a season at 60%, it will pay the same as if I got 56% for every game. So I've concentrated on working out a formula that guesses on every game (not just when both columns agree), and felt pretty good when I got 57% for every game during the 2010 season.

Then I went to the 2009 season with the same formula and got 54%. Not great, but not bad, so then I went to 2008 and got 49%. That sucks and is totally unacceptable since I can maintain at least 56.5% for at least half of the games with the old formula.

So I'm back to square one and it's frustrating. The NFL is locked out, the Kings are moving out of Sacramento, and I can't do a thing about it.

My Goal: 60% or higher weeks 1-17

My betting numbers from my projection formula won at 61% for the 2010 season. It was my second best season since keeping track in 2003. However, I'm not satisfied because it's only from weeks 5-17 and it's not for every game. I have two categories: Current stats and what's due. When both agree against the spread, I can win usually at 57%.

My goal before the 2011 season is to update my formula to include every game (not just when the two categories agree) and to include the first four weeks of the season (in my opinion the hardest weeks to gamble on). I'm hoping the 'new statistics' I've discovered from the 2010 Packers will be the missing link in achieving my goal.

Step one - Analyze every NFL box score from 2002-2010. Find out what creates points.

The 2010 Packers changed EVERYTHING

During the last 2 weeks I've been struggling trying to understand why Vegas has the Packers -2.5 for Super Bowl 45. So after seeing them defeat the Steelers last night 31-25, I've concluded that the 3 road playoff wins for the Packers made the difference. So, I now will have to go through all my numbers and factor 'home vs away' stats and strength of schedule.

Everything has changed (but for the better of course)!

So the numbers on NFLranking.net may not be the same a few months from now.

1972 Dolphins Ranking Formula

Lately I've been doing alot of football research and decided to change the formula for my ranking system. In the past everything was based on the 1972 Dolphins regular season stats. Now I've included two new categories: playoffs and strength of schedule. Everything needs to be adjusted so that the 72 Dolphins will have a rating of 100.00%. Well it turns out that the 72 Dolphins based on stats alone, were not that great. So, I then changed the ratios of how I weigh the stats, placing more emphasis on wins opposed to yards.

Old formula: Winning Percentage (1/3), Margin per victory (1/3), Yardage Margin (1/3)

old youtube video explaining it here ---> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixwDCgFs-W4

New Formula: Winning Percentage (4/7), Margin per victory (2/7), Yardage Margin (1/7)

The whole point of ranking NFL teams originally was to reward lesser known teams that had great stats with no championships. Now, I've stressed more importance on WINS and points and saved my yardage stats more for handicapping games (61% in 2010).

Please visit my site soon to see the changes. http://www.nflranking.net/