Monday, February 16, 2015
Projection Formula 2015
I did something I've never done before in 2014. I used a brand new projection formula that had not been tested on previous years dating back to 2012-2003 and still got 56.1% right vs the spread (closing spread preferred). This offseason I plan and changing it again, but hopefully will have time to test a few previous years to find the right 'formula' and combination of number sets. My goal one day is to have every box score recorded on excel spreadsheets and every game projected by my formula vs the spread. This will keep me occupied for years. Right now I'm finished with 2002-2014 on box scores, but starting all over with projecting scores vs the spread. My former one is 57% vs the spread since 2008. The goal is to improve on that.