Projection Formula 2015

I did something I've never done before in 2014.  I used a brand new projection formula that had not been tested on previous years dating back to 2012-2003 and still got 56.1% right vs the spread (closing spread preferred).  This offseason I plan and changing it again, but hopefully will have time to test a few previous years to find the right 'formula' and combination of number sets.  My goal one day is to have every box score recorded on excel spreadsheets and every game projected by my formula vs the spread.  This will keep me occupied for years.  Right now I'm finished with 2002-2014 on box scores, but starting all over with projecting scores vs the spread.  My former one is 57% vs the spread since 2008.  The goal is to improve on that.        

7 months later....

My newest projection formula is still not complete and will not factor any weather changes or individual statistics besides QB changes.  As far as entering box scores, I'm at the year 2005 (goal is to get to 1966, eventually).  I have one month to decide whether to use the previous formula or the newest one which isn't finished yet for my projected scores of 2014.

Projection Formula 3.0

Even though my NFL formula has been defeating the spread at 58% for 2013, I plan on changing it again for the year 2014.

-The first Formula was only designed for weeks 8-17 and only worked when two categories (current, what's due) agreed versus the spread.

-The second Formula factored schedule strength (home vs road), momentum and included all the games from weeks 1-17 & playoffs.

The newest one I'm working on will factor QB changes, weather, and a further breakdown of individual statistics.  I also would like to record every box score from 1966 on a spreadsheet.  This project could take 5 years or be finished by the 2014 season.

Replacement Officials

It's no secret that week 1 with the exception of the Super Bowl, is the most gambled on week during the NFL season.  ESPN has been constantly programming our brains into thinking these "replacement officials" (one of them reffed in the lingerie bowl OH NO) will somehow blow a major call at the end of the game.  Let me remind you about week 1 of 2010 when the Detroit Lions played at the Chicago Bears.  The Bears were favored by 6 points, and finally had a lead of 5 points at 19-14 (the refs were actually pro-Lions up in until that point) when one of the most controversial calls ever happened at the end of the game.  It was rightfully called a TD (Look at the photo above) until they had to review it in the booth, where they (with  no evidence) took away the TD based on the fact the ball left Johnson's hands way after catching it with two feet in bounds.  Instead of the Lions winning, the Bears won by 5 points and I missed out on making 400.00 using only 8.00 worth of parlay bets.  I made a youtube video about the play which ultimately lead to the termination of my channel (NFLranking) which had 1779 subscribers and over 3.5 million views.

Apparently the owners HATE instant replay and want the game to be controversial according to Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith, so more people will talk about the game Monday morning.  Just hearing this makes me want to puke.  I'm pretty sure the NBA had a huge falling out after the 2002 Western Conference Finals.  The NFL or sports rather wouldn't exist if people couldn't find a way to gamble on it.  The reason why Baseball starts in the year 1901 is because between 1860-1900, too much gambling and rigging occurred to count the stats as legitimate.  That's why the Black Sox scandal was such a big deal.  The MLB destroyed 18 years worth of trust with their fans.  

I am passionate about this subject because I like to gamble on football.  However, knowing that the owners want "bad calls" has somehow confirmed a suspicion I've always had.  The NFL and owners, the casinos, and the sports media all collude to maximize their profits.  The NFL is worth about 4 billion I've been told and nearly 2 billion is gambled on it each week.  It would be absurd to not think these guys are part of that action as well.  The Tim Donaghy scandal already confirmed it.  He didn't get busted because the NBA caught him gambling, but rather eventually got caught (he turned himself in after the heat was on his bookie Jimmy Battista) because the casinos were losing money.  It's the casinos these leagues cater to more than the fans.

Bad news!

On 8/19/2011 youtube deleted my Channel http://www.youtube.com/NFLranking.com for multiple copyright violations by the NFL. I'm trying to fight it, but it doesn't look good since youtube hasn't written me back. I have a new channel here titled NFLrankingDOTnet http://www.youtube.com/NFLrankingDOTnet

I will make a new video detailing how youtube, the NFL, and the NBA all conspired against me for telling the truth. The first image of the Greatest Tragedy in Sports was the American flag which was to remind them about my constitutional rights regarding the Fair Use act of 1976. The NFL thinks that law doesn't pertain to them, and I will gladly educate them that it does. Either way my videos still should not have been deleted and I will fight this until the end of time.

Meanwhile I've been running through simulations on numerous formulas I've invented since the Packers defeated the Steelers in Super Bowl 45.

One formula had me winning the 2010 season at 59.4%, but the 2008-2009 seasons were only at 52.0%. I don't have the time to go through 2003-2007 seasons before the kickoff of 2011, so I will just have to wing it with what I have working for me. All these numbers are subject to change of course during or after the season when I find the right mathematics.

At worst I can get about half the games right at 56.5%. At best I'm hoping to get 56% of ALL the games right vs the spread. All I need is time which unfortunately I don't have enough of before the 2011 season.

Future Projects

There's too much happening all at once. Just when I thought I had an off-season of time to update my projection formula, the Sacramento Kings have decided to leave my home town for Anaheim. This news upsets me like no other and when they do move I'll make a video about it the same way Sonicsgate made theirs. So here's what I have on my agenda...............

NBA videos

- The Kings Last Game (An hour long documentary for youtube)

- Donaghy vs Stern (The final documentary in the Making of the Greatest Tragedy in Sports trilogy)

NFL videos

-512 All-time Team Tournament

-Ranking the NFL (A documentary about how I decoded NFL's betting lines)

www.NFLranking.net

-I will rank all the NFL teams statistically from 1966-2010 and will simulate my projected scores against the point spread from 2003-2010.

This is harder than I thought

If I get half of the games right for a season at 60%, it will pay the same as if I got 56% for every game. So I've concentrated on working out a formula that guesses on every game (not just when both columns agree), and felt pretty good when I got 57% for every game during the 2010 season.

Then I went to the 2009 season with the same formula and got 54%. Not great, but not bad, so then I went to 2008 and got 49%. That sucks and is totally unacceptable since I can maintain at least 56.5% for at least half of the games with the old formula.

So I'm back to square one and it's frustrating. The NFL is locked out, the Kings are moving out of Sacramento, and I can't do a thing about it.